Cerezo Osakavs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerezo Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Cerezo Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 62.5% | 43.5% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.7% | 25.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.79 | 15.7% | 31.0% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Cerezo Osaka
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Cerezo Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20