Cerezo Osakavs
JEF United Chiba
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/25/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerezo Osaka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerezo Osaka 2-2 JEF United Chiba
Original prediction
Cerezo Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 54.6% | 52.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.4% | 25.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 21.0% | 22.6% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cerezo Osaka
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Cerezo Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80