Cerezo Osakavs
FC Gifu
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 8/26/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerezo Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerezo Osaka 3-1 FC Gifu
Original prediction
Cerezo Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.3% | 45.6% | -21.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.6% | 26.3% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 6.98 | 13.0% | 28.1% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Cerezo Osaka
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Cerezo Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60