GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 2/15/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1

Highconfidence

Central Espanol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Penarol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Penarol

Probability

44.4%

Model confidence

44.4%

Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Central EspanolWDWWL

GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PenarolWLWDW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Central EspanolPenarol
40.6Attack58.0
62.3Defence71.0
52.2Form66.7
53.4Power65.9
0.73xG1.24
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