GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 5/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Central Espanol are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Defensor Sporting are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Central Espanol hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 48.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.6% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

45.6%

Model confidence

45.6%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Central EspanolWLWLD

GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Defensor SportingLDWDW

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting
40.6Attack27.5
62.3Defence69.6
52.2Form39.1
53.4Power48.1
0.81xG0.56
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