Central Coast Marinersvs
Newcastle Jets
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/17/2026, 8:40:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle Jets · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Central Coast Mariners 2-2 Newcastle Jets
Original prediction
Newcastle Jets
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 25.4% | 35.4% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 23.2% | 26.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 51.4% | 37.9% | -13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle Jets
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Newcastle Jets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00