Cenicerovs
San Marcial
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cenicero · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cenicero 1-3 San Marcial
Original prediction
Cenicero
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.4% | 41.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 29.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.3% | 29.3% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Cenicero
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Cenicero has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00