Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celtic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celtic 2-1 Falkirk
Original prediction
Celtic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 78.4% | 56.9% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.81 | 13.8% | 23.0% | 9.2 pts |
| Away | 12.01 | 7.8% | 20.2% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Celtic
Probability
56.9%
Model confidence
56.9%
Celtic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CelticLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FalkirkDLWDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CelticFalkirk
100.0Attack0.0
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form16.7
92.8Power31.3
1.82xG0.90