Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celtic · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celtic 3-0 Aberdeen
Original prediction
Celtic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 75.2% | 59.7% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.01 | 15.6% | 22.1% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 10.18 | 9.2% | 18.2% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Celtic
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Celtic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CelticWLWWW
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
AberdeenLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CelticAberdeen
88.9Attack22.2
77.8Defence55.6
100.0Form33.3
88.8Power40.3
2.00xG0.83