Celta Vigovs
Racing Santander
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celta Vigo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing Santander
Original prediction
Celta Vigo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.9% | 44.9% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.9% | 25.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.28 | 22.2% | 29.6% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Celta Vigo
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Celta Vigo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80