Celta Vigovs
Osasuna
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/27/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celta Vigo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna
Original prediction
Celta Vigo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 47.9% | 40.6% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.7% | 29.0% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 23.3% | 30.4% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Celta Vigo
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Celta Vigo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20