Celta Vigovs
Malaga
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/13/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celta Vigo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga
Original prediction
Celta Vigo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 55.0% | 46.5% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 26.3% | 28.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 18.7% | 25.5% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Celta Vigo
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Celta Vigo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80