Celta Vigovs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/30/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celta Vigo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta Vigo 0-2 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Celta Vigo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 35.4% | 42.1% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 30.0% | 28.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 34.6% | 29.7% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Celta Vigo
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Celta Vigo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40