Celta Vigovs
Alaves
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/18/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Celta Vigo 0-0 Alaves, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.8% | 35.8% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.7% | 31.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 27.5% | 33.2% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
Celta Vigo 0–0 Alaves
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.0%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Celta VigoLDWLD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlavesLDLLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Celta VigoAlaves
33.3Attack50.0
75.0Defence66.7
33.3Form45.8
46.6Power54.3
0.82xG0.85