Celta de Vigo IIvs
Sabadell
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 9/26/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sabadell · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta de Vigo II 1-1 Sabadell
Original prediction
Sabadell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.26 | 28.5% | 29.2% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.5% | 29.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 43.0% | 41.4% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Sabadell
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Sabadell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00