Celta de Vigo IIvs
Castellón
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 8/31/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celta de Vigo II 1-2 Castellón
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.06 | 23.0% | 34.3% | 11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.8% | 27.6% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 52.3% | 38.1% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20