Celoricensevs
Vila Meã
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Celoricense 0-0 Vila Meã, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Celoricense 0-0 Vila Meã
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.6% | 36.1% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.2% | 30.2% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 22.2% | 33.7% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.22 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Projected Score
Celoricense 0–0 Vila Meã
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.2%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CeloricenseLLWWW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Vila MeãWLDDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CeloricenseVila Meã
25.0Attack58.3
83.3Defence75.0
58.3Form58.3
58.8Power62.9
0.85xG1.00