Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Celje are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Sabah FA are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celje hold an 11.3-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Celje holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40