Celjevs
Red Bull Salzburg
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Red Bull Salzburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celje 2-2 Red Bull Salzburg
Original prediction
Red Bull Salzburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.78 | 16.4% | 24.8% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 21.5% | 25.4% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 62.1% | 49.8% | -12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Red Bull Salzburg
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Red Bull Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20