Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celje · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celje 1-0 Aluminij
Original prediction
Celje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.6% | 50.4% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.9% | 25.8% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 4.91 | 18.6% | 23.7% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Celje
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Celje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CeljeDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AluminijDDWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CeljeAluminij
50.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
86.5Power15.3
1.76xG0.91