Celayavs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 1/26/2025, 3:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Venados FC are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.8 against 53.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80