Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Celaya are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00