Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Celaya are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20