Celayavs
Tepatitlán
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 2/23/2025, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Celaya are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Tepatitlán are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.8-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 13.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00