Celayavs
Tepatitlán
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/19/2023, 11:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Celaya are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tepatitlán are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.8-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 13.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40