Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20