Mexico · Primera Premier · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Celaya 2-0 Tapachula
Original prediction
Celaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.7% | 41.6% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.2% | 28.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.1% | 30.3% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CelayaLWWWD
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TapachulaDLWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CelayaTapachula
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.49xG1.26