Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 16.6-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
34.2%
Model confidence
34.2%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20