CelayavsLeones Negros UDG

Celaya are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 10.7-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.