Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Dorados are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 15.2-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.7% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60