Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Celaya 1-0 Cordobés, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Celaya 2-1 Cordobés
Original prediction
Celaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.3% | 49.0% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.0% | 28.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.12 | 17.7% | 23.0% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Projected Score
Celaya 1–0 Cordobés
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CelayaLLDWD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CordobésLWWLL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CelayaCordobés
42.9Attack23.8
66.7Defence57.1
38.1Form33.3
49.6Power40.4
1.28xG0.65