Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cancún are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.6-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40