Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cancún are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 39.6-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60