Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Celaya are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while CA La Paz are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and CA La Paz hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
34.9%
Model confidence
34.9%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20