CelayavsAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Celaya are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Celaya hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Celaya holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.