Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Ceara are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Vila Nova are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Vila Nova hold a 7.8-point power-rating edge (47.3 v 55.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.5% in the Serie B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
17.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00