Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventude · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ceara 0-0 Juventude, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ceara 2-2 Juventude
Original prediction
Juventude
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.4% | 24.0% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.9% | 32.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.6% | 43.5% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Projected Score
Ceara 0–0 Juventude
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Juventude
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Juventude has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CearaLWWDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JuventudeDWWWL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CearaJuventude
35.4Attack39.4
59.6Defence78.8
42.4Form60.6
48.4Power61.0
0.52xG0.91