Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ceara 0-0 Criciuma, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ceara 1-0 Criciuma
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 37.0% | 30.4% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 30.0% | 32.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.0% | 37.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Projected Score
Ceara 0–0 Criciuma
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.6%
Model confidence
37.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CearaWDWDL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CriciumaWWLLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
CearaCriciuma
36.6Attack35.5
58.1Defence71.0
41.9Form57.0
48.1Power56.4
0.66xG0.84