Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ceará U20 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ceará U20 3-1 Goiás U20
Original prediction
Ceará U20
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 49.6% | 41.8% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.3% | 25.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.1% | 32.6% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Ceará U20
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Ceará U20 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ceará U20WWDDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Goiás U20WWLLD
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Ceará U20Goiás U20
50.0Attack100.0
83.3Defence50.0
100.0Form100.0
83.3Power86.5
2.02xG1.87