CD Olimpiavs
Atletico Independiente
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/20/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Olimpia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Olimpia 4-0 Atletico Independiente
Original prediction
CD Olimpia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 68.7% | 59.7% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.56 | 19.8% | 23.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 7.86 | 11.5% | 17.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
CD Olimpia
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
CD Olimpia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00