CD Motaguavs
Olancho
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 8/30/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Motagua 2-1 Olancho
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.9% | 42.3% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.7% | 26.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.72 | 24.4% | 30.8% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60