CD Motaguavs
LD Alajuelense
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 10/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Motagua 0-0 LD Alajuelense
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.8% | 40.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 31.9% | 27.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.3% | 31.3% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00