CD Motaguavs
Génesis
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/13/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Motagua 1-0 Génesis
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.4% | 41.2% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 18.5% | 32.4% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00