CD Motaguavs
Atlético Choloma
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 10/10/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: CD Motagua 0-0 Atlético Choloma, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Motagua 2-1 Atlético Choloma
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.4% | 56.1% | -19.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.73 | 15.8% | 26.5% | 10.8 pts |
| Away | 10.18 | 8.9% | 17.4% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.3 pts
Projected Score
CD Motagua 0–0 Atlético Choloma
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60