CD Motaguavs
Alianza
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 9/10/2026, 3:06:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Motagua 3-0 Alianza
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.0% | 49.8% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.9% | 25.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 6.01 | 15.0% | 24.3% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20