CD Marathonvs
Estrella Roja
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/6/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Marathon 5-0 Estrella Roja
Original prediction
CD Marathon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.4% | 44.5% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.7% | 26.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.35 | 16.9% | 29.0% | 12.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40