CD Marathonvs
CD Olimpia
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/13/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CD Marathon 1-0 CD Olimpia
Original prediction
CD Marathon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.5% | 40.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.3% | 26.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.3% | 33.3% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00