Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cəbrayıl · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cəbrayıl 7-0 Zaqatala
Original prediction
Cəbrayıl
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 74.1% | 68.6% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.50 | 16.5% | 18.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 9.60 | 9.4% | 13.4% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Cəbrayıl
Probability
68.6%
Model confidence
68.6%
Cəbrayıl has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CəbrayılLWWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ZaqatalaLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
CəbrayılZaqatala
66.7Attack40.0
73.3Defence6.7
80.0Form26.7
74.3Power26.3
2.70xG0.79