Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Caxias are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Ituano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Caxias hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.1% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80