Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cavese 0-0 Sorrento, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cavese 2-3 Sorrento
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.3% | 42.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 31.3% | 31.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.3% | 26.9% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Projected Score
Cavese 0–0 Sorrento
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CaveseDDWLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SorrentoWWWWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CaveseSorrento
36.0Attack34.2
62.2Defence58.8
42.3Form42.1
49.1Power46.8
0.96xG0.70